如果你是一个关注市场新闻的投资者, you probably know that the market didn’t do you many favors toward the end of 2018 (如果你是长期投资者 who doesn’t really pay attention to market news, 对你有好处).

2016年、2017年和 大多数 of 2018, many people were lulled to sleep and forgot that the market doesn’t always go up. 没有人愿意看到自己的账户贬值, 但对于长期投资者来说, it’s an important reminder that these things are not unprecedented; actually, 这种情况经常发生.

仍然, 许多指标, we haven’t really faced a “bear market” since the infamous Great Financial Crisis a decade ago. A bear market is usually defined as a 20% decrease from previous highs in the market. 这取决于你问谁,或者你如何衡量, the 大多数 recent decline at the end of 2018 was right around that -20% mark.

事实是,数字本身并不重要——它 感觉 就像熊市一样. And when something feels bad, we often want to react in some way. 是有意义的,对吧? 有东西让我痛苦,所以我想停止痛苦. 这是公平的, but often times our gut reactions are not the 大多数 appropriate reactions for long-term investing success.

说到这里,让我们来看看一些 注意事项 that can help you navigate this “bear market” and make the correct long-term decisions:




简单地说, 如果你是长期投资者, the short-term fluctuations of the market should not matter to you. 在大多数情况下,最好的反应是完全没有反应. 继续做你一直在做的事. 当然,说起来容易做起来难, but try to keep that in mind when you check your year-end statements and feel uneasy.



这种事时常发生. 这是投资风险的一部分. 例如,在2015年末/ 2016年初,S&标普500指数较此前高点下跌了约15%. 甚至在2018年初,S&普尔500指数下跌了约10%. 都是最近发生的, but 大多数 people have already forgotten because the market rebounded in short order.

本·卡尔森刚刚写道 manbetx官网电脑下载其他几个很少被人记住的熊市. The main takeaway is that while these probably seemed awful at the time, 从大局来看, 它们只是雷达上的光点, 如果你能坚持下去的话, 你本来会没事的.



If you invest at all, you ought to have an investment plan that helps guide your decisions. 一个好的投资计划从一开始就设定了预期. 你知道你在投资什么, 为什么这对你有意义, and how to expect your investments to react to different market conditions.

It will also help you determine how aggressively you should be invested, 以及何时做出调整. For example, your plan might tell you that since stocks have fallen, you actually 没有足够的 把钱投进股票,你应该这么做 购买更多. This approach (we call it “rebalancing”) might go against your gut, 但它是由预先设定的目标决定的, 防止情绪过激.

Making decisions based on your personal investment plan are much more viable (and easier, quite frankly) than making decisions based on the fluctuations of the market.




Your gut might tell you this increased volatility in the market means we’re on the brink of a giant recession. 这可能是真的. 然而,我们无法知道或预测这一点. What we do know is that markets go up more often than they go down, and over time staying invested has led to pretty great results.

If your instincts have been telling you to sell your stocks, remind yourself:

• Stocks you own are less risky than they were a few months ago (they were riskier when the prices were high since you had more to lose).
• Stocks are currently discounted by about 20%, and if you’re saving money on a regular basis (i.e. 401k存款)你是在股票打折的时候买的.
•当前股价下跌时, your future expected return actually goes up (things tend to balance out in the long run; this is known as “reversion to the mean”).



这是愚蠢的游戏. 为了把事情做好, you have to first correctly anticipate when the market is at a peak, 然后出去. You then also must correctly anticipate when the market has bottomed out, then get back in. 即使你正确预测了市场会下跌, 你可能要等一两个月, 在这段时间里,可能会错失重大收益.

Many thought the 10% decline earlier in 2018 was the start of a huge decline. They sold, locked in their losses, and missed out on several months of gains. 本质上, market timing is convincing yourself that you have mastered the ebbs and flows of the stock market, 你可以准确地预测未来. 祝你好运.



The goal of a headline is to grab your attention so you read more. 标题并不是用来做决策的工具. 知道世界上正在发生什么没什么错, 但要记住,头条新闻本质上是短期的. 他们专注于当下发生的事情. 对于长期投资者来说,“这一刻”并不重要. Stay informed, but keep your focus on the long-term when you make decisions.

当然,说起来容易做起来难. If you’re worried about bear markets or the next downturn, give us a call. We can’t tell you exactly what’s going to happen in the future, but we can help you make sure you’ve got the right plan in place to get through whatever the future holds.


manbetx官网电脑下载作者: Josh Bentz

Josh Bentz, CFP®, 财富顾问, helps clients organize and simplify their financial lives by providing comprehensive, 个人财务规划. As a 财富顾问, Josh provides comprehensive financial planning for clients. He enjoys getting to know individuals and families so he can give specific, meaningful advice. He believes in being a fiduciary and doing what is in the best interest of clients.